45% of the triathlons in the US are sprint distance (based on over 2,000 races we have profiled at Racegossip.com). In general, those new to the sport start with short distances to see if this progressively addictive sport is for them. Some of us take it to the next level and complete an Olympic distance and maybe a Half Ironman (or to be politically correct, Ironman 70.3)

Then comes the Full Ironman distance of a 2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike and 26.2 mile run,  a colossal challenge. The best triathletes in the world complete this distance in 8 to 9 hours depending on the course and weather conditions. And if you are “good enough”, you can compete with them for the world champion title in Kona, Hawaii.

I am not sure if there are any other sports in the world where amateurs can compete  with the best in the world. For soccer fans, it’s like playing in a tournament with Ronaldo, Kaka, Messi, etc. For basketball fans it’s like sharing competitively the same court with Kobe and LeBron… you got the idea.

There are several Ironman qualifying races in the US and each race has several spots for age group athletes. In general, you have to be in the top 5-10 in your age group to qualify for Kona.

But which race best fits to your triathlete abilities? There are several things one needs to consider: The weather, date, and location of the race and your strengths as an athlete.

This analysis takes a look at the average course speed for Kona qualifiers to show you which course attributes may have the greatest impact on your results based on your strengths/weaknesses in swim,  bike and run. For example, if you are really strong on the bike, you might want to tackle the course which is hillier where other athletes tend to be slower. If you are a strong runner and believe that you can run the marathon under 8 min / miles pace, then you should choose the course where athletes are potentially slower than you.

I analyzed the data of 7 different Ironman courses and took into account only the athletes who qualified for Kona by using the data provided at www.ironmanusa.com. Some races had 10 years of data (Florida) and some only 1 year (Louisville and St . George).

Let’s take a look at the results for one of the most competitive age groups - M 35-39:

 

There are several ways to look at this information:

1)      If you don’t want to travel and know exactly which race you want to do (e.g. you live in Chicago and you want to compete in Ironman Wisconsin) you can look at the table above and make some decisions. Let’s say you are not a very strong swimmer and think that you can average 1:45 per 100 meter. This means you will be 266 seconds (7*38) behind the average qualifier. In order to close that gap, you will have to average 21.1 mph on the bike or run the marathon with an average pace of 7:57 or some combination of both. If you want to do more sensitivity analyses, you can visit racegossip.com, find your race and use the RG calculator designed for each race located at the bottom of the race details page.

 

2)      If you are a very strong biker and can tackle hills effectively then Wisconsin, Lake Placid or St. George are your best bets. You can put a gap between you and the competition. You might want to do Ironman Florida as well, but you have to average 22.5 mph or faster to make a difference.

 

3)      If you don’t like the hills when biking and prefer flat courses then your choices are Arizona, Louisville or Florida. But if you go to Florida, don’t forget that you have to be around 7:46 min /mile pace during the marathon.

 

Each athlete needs to consider his/her own strengths and weaknesses, if he or she wants to have a shot at Kona. I am providing the tables for M 30-34, F 30-34 and F 35-39 age group athletes as well at the end of this write-up. If you want to access other age group information just send me an e-mail at ozan@racegossip.com and I will be happy to share the results with you.

As mentioned before, there are many factors to consider if you are attempting to do an Ironman and thinking about qualifying for Kona. You might just get lucky and get a spot via the lottery or one of age groupers in front of you might have already qualified and you happened to be  the next in line (later races in the calendar tend to have more roll downs). Or  just train harder and be smart about which race to choose!